14 June 2024
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Michael Cianchette is a Navy reservist who served in Afghanistan. He is in-house counsel to a number of businesses in southern Maine and was a chief counsel to former Gov. Paul LePage.
Remember the old saying, “as Maine goes, so goes the nation”? It may be relevant again.
Back in February, Pan Atlantic Research released its “Omnibus” poll. It showed Donald Trump running away with the Second Congressional District, outpacing Joe Biden by 20 points in the 2024 presidential election.
Biden led the First Congressional District by eight points, 39 to 31. It was a far cry from the 2020 margin when Biden earned 60 percent of the southern part of the state, while Trump landed at 37 percent.
Putting it all together, Pan Atlantic’s poll showed Trump would win statewide, netting him three of our four electoral votes.
Most observers paid little heed to the projection. The Cook Political Report still says Maine is “Likely D” statewide, while CNN claims it is “Solid Dem.”
Yet, just this week, another Maine polling firm — Digital Research — released its Spring 2024 Maine poll. It had some interesting insights, particularly when compared to the firm’s Fall 2023 results.
Joe Biden’s approval rating improved slightly from the fall 2023 poll, increasing to 32 percent from 30 percent. However, Donald Trump’s retrospective approval rating as president increased from 38 percent to 43 percent in the same timeframe.
In other words, Trump’s approval lead over Biden increased from 8 percent to 11 percent. Meanwhile, Trump beats Biden on the statewide ballot, according to the poll. Until Round 5 of ranked-choice voting finally pushes the current president to a majority, 51 percent to 49 percent.
This is going to make for a very interesting November.
Austin Theriault’s win over Mike Soboleski this week for the GOP nomination challenging Jared Golden was resounding. Theriault notably earned Trump’s support, despite Soboleski leading efforts against Secretary of State Shenna Bellows’ attempt to remove Trump from the ballot.
Was it Trump’s influence that catapulted Theriault forward? Does that lend more credibility to the Pan Atlantic February poll?
We will see.
One of the more interesting polling averages available is on FiveThirtyEight, a data journalism outlet now owned by ABC. They track not only Biden’s approval rating, but also compare it to every prior president’s approval at the same time in their tenure, all the way back to Harry Truman.
What does it show?
Biden is less popular than every president on day 1,240 of his presidency, excepting only George H.W. Bush. Notably, Bush was a single termer.
That is a problem for the incumbent.
One of the questions asked in Digital Research’s Fall 2023 poll asked whether people were satisfied having Trump and Biden as their electoral choices. Sixty-two percent of Mainers said “no” — including yours truly.
Yet it appears we are destined to select from two bad choices. And one of the other national data points shared by FiveThirtyEight is each candidate’s “net approval,” or their total approval minus their total disapproval. Unsurprisingly, both are underwater.
But Trump is minus 12.3 while Biden is minus 17.3. That correlates with both Digital Research and Pan Atlantic’s findings in Maine.
Add all of this up and what does it mean? My guess is that both campaigns will see Maine’s statewide electoral votes as in play. In other words, while the First Congressional District will assuredly back Biden and the Second support Trump, Maine as a whole could be a swing state during the 2024 election.
There are several scenarios where our two statewide electoral votes make the difference in the presidential election. The data wonks on both campaigns are crunching these numbers and will likely reach the same conclusion.
So buckle up. With the primary now behind us, the campaigns will begin in earnest. And it could be that Maine will once more decide where the nation goes.